Note to self

Certain Nasdaq tech stocks have, in my opinion, been unfairly tarnished by the fuckwitted problems in the financial sector. They are bargains and had I the cash between one and two years time I’d be laughing. During the dot-com bust it was horrible to watch loads of companies that were fundamentally sound dragged down with idiotic companies. The stock for companies that survived could have been picked up dirt cheap. Had I the foresight to invest, which is easy in retrospect.

The market hasn’t bottomed by any means, but here’s my theory, pulled out of my arse: 1) The tech sector is going to reach a bottom faster than other sectors, not quite as fast as Eliot Spitzer reaching a bottom via an escort service, but within two months. 2) The exact time a bottom is going to be reached is difficult to predict, but less so in the tech sector (there’s unlikely to be bad news to come) than other sectors. But a short loss is worth swallowing for the long term gains. 3) The risk in much of the tech sector is different from other sectors because of transnational assets and sales. It’s diverse rather than localised risk.

With regards of everything other than tech - it’s not bottomed yet because there’s more bad news to come. Anyone that thinks that isn’t the case is being naïve. The Fed does not make moves of the magnitude made over the weekend without reason. History will tell. What I hope is that rationality wins the day, everyone calms down, stops thinking in the short term, and most markets bottom in the next few weeks. But what I hope, indeed, what I say, is pulled from my arse, and is a poor excuse for a blog entry. And could be bollocks.

Here’s what I’d buy, in my imaginary bet:

Intel (Nasdaq symbol INTC) - $20 is not a fuckload off it’s 8 year low and is a bargain. Intel is going to dominate the chip market for the imminent future. Hasn’t been hit by stocking up on a twit load of flash memory.

Nvidia (Nasdaq symbol NVDA) - $20 is nowhere near Nvidia’s lows, but Nvidia has shown surprising resilience in the face of competition from AMD (inc. ATI) and Intel, in both the on-board graphics/motherboard market at the graphics card market. Huge global sales/assets.

Sun (Nasdaq symbol JAVA) - $16 - post acquisition of the ubiquitous MySQL, is a bargain. There will be more webservers and more MySQL. Doesn’t matter which Linux distribution a webhost runs, they still need MySQL.

In two years time I’ll find out if I’m right or not.